Fitria Chusna Farisa, Jakarta – Indikator Politik Indonesia researcher Bawono Kumoro says that there is a good possibility that three presidential and vice presidential candidate tickets will emerge in the 2024 presidential elections.
Kumoro's statement was in response to several political parties who have recently begun sounding out coalitions with other political parties in anticipation of the elections.
"There is of course a good possibility of three candidate tickets emerging in the coming presidential elections", Kumoro told Kompas.com on Tuesday May 17.
According to Kumoro, the number of tickets in the 2024 presidential elections will very much be determined by the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) choice of presidential and vice presidential candidate. This is because the PDI-P is the biggest shareholder in the political constellation.
Kumoro is of the view that the other parties will tend to wait to see if the PDI-P will actually form a coalition with the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and back a Puan Maharani-Prabowo Subianto ticket as suggested by news which has been circulating of late.
The other parties are also waiting to see whether or not the PDI-P instead backs Ganjar Pranowo as a presidential candidate.
There have been indications of late of an internal rivalry within the PDI-P between party Central Leadership Board Chairperson Maharani and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo.
As the daughter of PDI-P General Chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri, Maharani is seen as having a good chance of being nominated in the coming presidential elections. Her electability however is only around 1 percent and far behind PDI-P leader Pranowo whose electability is above 20 percent.
Because of this, according to Kumoro, the PDI-P's final position will very much determine the moves of the other political parties in forming coalitions and backing presidential candidates.
"If these two things happen, Puan Maharani and Prabowo Subianto will be backed by the PDI-P and Gerindra, then Ganjar Pranowo will not be backed by the PDI-P, so the possibility of three presidential tickets emerging is wide open", said Kumoro.
If indeed in the end the PDI-P forms a coalition with Gerindra and backs a Puan-Prabowo ticket, then this ticket will be the first axis.
The other axis will be the political parties that back Pranowo, who with his high electability will be highly sought over.
The third axis, according to Kumoro, will emerge from the political parties which back Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate. According to surveys by a number of polling institutions, Baswedan has a high electability, on par with Pranowo and Prabowo.
Because of this, Baswedan, who currently does not have a political party, will have a strong electability capital to nominate himself as a presidential candidate.
"Here perhaps it will be initiated by the Nasdem [the National Democrat] Party, the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), and also the Democrat Party", said Kumoro.
Speaking in the same vein as Kumoro, Nusakom Pratama Political Studies Institute Director Ari Junaedi said earlier that in the end the formation of political coalitions will be determined by the position of the PDI-P as the only political party with enough seats in the parliament to be able to nominate its own presidential and vice presidential candidates.
If the PDI-P backs Maharani and not Pranowo, then the party with the bull logo may well become "parents to a marriage" with Gerindra.
"Gerindra itself is already final about putting forward its general chairperson, Prabowo Subianto", Junaedi told Kompas.com on Saturday May 14.
Junaedi is also of the view that three axis will emerge in 2024 if Pranowo is not accommodated by his own political party.
First, an axis with Prabowo as presidential candidate and Maharani as the vice presidential candidate backed by Gerindra, the PDI-P and the National Awakening Party. Under this axis, the PDI-P will have to be content with Maharani vying for the vice presidential seat.
Second, an axis of Ganjar Pranowo and Democrat Party Chairperson Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) supported by the Democrats, the PKS, Nasdem and one other party. This coalition will need to work hard to win the contest, said Junaedi.
"So they will need to rake in another party so that they can make up the votes [to be eligible to nominate a presidential ticket]", he said.
The final coalition will be the United Indonesia Coalition, which is currently being put together by the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP), and which will perhaps back Pranowo and Golkar Party Chairperson Airlangga Hartarto.
[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was "Pilpres 2024 Diprediksi Munculkan 3 Poros Capres, Bergantung Sikap PDI-P".]
