Jakarta – The Institute for Economic and Social Research at the University of Indonesia Faculty of Economics and Business (LPEM FEB UI) released its Economic Experts Survey on Monday March 17.
The independent survey conducted by the LPEM FEB UI aimed to capture the insights of experts regarding the Indonesian economic landscape and strengthening the institutional commitment to policy discussions based on information and the country's future developments.
From the results of this survey, the LPEM noted that the majority of experts, namely 23 out of 42 experts or 55% of respondents agreed that economic situation has deteriorated compared with three months ago.
"Seven experts even consider the situation to be far worse, while 11 experts consider that it has stagnated, and only one expert saw it as being better. With an average confidence interval of 7.71 points, the results of this survey show a generally pessimistic view of Indonesia's economic conditions, according to economists", wrote the LPEM in its report as quoted on Monday.
Furthermore, 23 respondents also predicted that economic growth over the next period would be lower than the current figure, although none of the respondents thought that the contraction would be very much stronger in the future.
Meanwhile more than a quarter of respondents expect no significant change and a minority of six experts or specialists expect there to still be growth over the next period.
Most experts in the survey believe inflationary pressures will not change or be much lower than in the previous period. Around nine out of 42 experts see inflationary pressures increasing, while only two experts see inflation as being much lower than previously.
In addition to this, most of the experts also consider current labour market conditions to be worse than in the previous period, and nine other experts consider it to be much worse.
"Thirteen experts considered it unchanged, while only one expert considered it improved", the LPEM survey said.
The results of this survey found that the expected labour market situation still does not provide a sense of confidence for job seekers.
Meanwhile, 14 of the 42 experts expect that the labour market will worsen in the next period, and even be far worse, according to 10 others. Some 13 experts see it as unchanged from the current figure, while a minority of five experts predicted that it will improve.
Furthermore, compared to the current situation, 17 out of the 42 experts predicted that the business environment will worsen, and six experts predicted it will be much worse. Thirteen experts predicted that the business environment will remain unchanged, five predicted it will be better and one predicted it will be much better.
Most respondents considered that the government's fiscal policies have been ineffective (28%) and slightly ineffective (60%). Meanwhile, related to monetary policy, most experts consider that the fiscal policy has had no impact (38%), followed by those who consider the fiscal policy to be slightly ineffective. However, around 13 respondents (31%) considered the policy response to be slightly ineffective.
"A neutral average score of 0.00 indicates a balanced view, not a strong bias toward effectiveness or ineffectiveness", the survey said.
The Economic Experts Survey also looked at expectations and perceptions of economic stability.
The survey results show that expectations for Indonesia's political stability have stagnated or declined compared to the previous administration. Of the 42 respondents, 28 felt there had been a decline, 16 a small decline, 12 a significant decline while 11 saw no change.
"There were no respondents who reported any improvement, reflecting existing concerns about declining stability", the LPEM report said.
On the issue of corruption, the survey results show that corruption in the Indonesian government is considered to have stagnated or even worsened compared with the previous government. Of the 42 respondents, 24 respondents saw a decline, nine respondents saw a slight improvement, 15 respondents saw significant improvement and 16 respondents saw no change.
Only two respondents reported slight improvement, and none saw significant progress, reflecting growing concerns over rising corruption.
The survey also highlighted the direction of the new administration's economic policies in its first 100 days. Broadly, experts saw the policy direction of the administration's first 100 days as ineffective.
"Out of the 42 respondents, 36 viewed it negatively – 21 as ineffective, 15 as very ineffective – while only two saw some effectiveness and four remained neutral", the LPEM said.
Thus, no respondents considered the policy very effective, reflecting widespread scepticism. (haa/haa)
[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was "Survei LPEM UI: Mayoritas Ahli Sepakat Ekonomi RI Suram".]
