Jakarta – The House of Representatives (DPR) has finally approved the General Election Commission Regulation (PKPU) on the requirements for the nomination of regional heads in accordance with the Constitutional Court's (MK) ruling on Sunday August 25.
This situation is the complete opposite of the DPR's position on Wednesday August 21 when it wanted to push through enacting revisions to the Regional Elections Law at a plenary meeting even though it conflicted with Sunday's Constitutional Court ruling.
Earlier, the DPR's Legislative Body (Baleg) agreed to take the Draft Law on Regional Elections (RUU Pilkada) to a plenary meeting. The bill was agreed to by eight out of the nine political party factions in the DPR. Only the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) opposed it.
The deliberations on the bill were completed in less than seven hours. On several occasions, the Baleg ignored interruptions from the PDI-P.
The revisions to the law were also done a day after the Constitutional Court changed the requirements for nominating candidates for regional head elections though ruling Number 60/PUU-XXII/2024. The DPR however, did not accommodate the entire ruling.
The Baleg approved several changes in the draft law. First, in relation to the threshold requirements for nominating candidates though political party channels, they decided this would only apply to parties that do not have seats in the respective Regional House of Representatives (DPRD), instead of all parties as stipulated in the Constitutional Court ruling.
This meant that parties who have seats in the DPRD still had to meet the nomination threshold of 20 percent of seats in the local assembly or 25 percent of the votes in the previous election.
Then on the minimum age limit of candidates running for governor and deputy governor under Article 7 of the Regional Elections Law. The Baleg chose to adopt the earlier May ruling by the Supreme Court rather than the Constitutional Court. Thus, the age limit for gubernatorial candidate would be determined from the date of the inauguration of the elected candidate.
Saving themselves
A number of political observers believe that the DPR was forced to "save itself" because of pressure by ordinary people who rejected the revisions through demonstrations that were very big and increasingly unstoppable.
Trias Politika Strategis Executive Director Agung Baskoro said the move was automatically taken because pubic resistance had already grown too big.
He believes that the political parties calculated and were convinced that the negative impact would be far greater if it continues to push through the revisions to the Draft Regional Elections Law. Baskoro therefore believes that saving themselves was the most realistic option the DPR could take.
"The DPR didn't want to fight the flow of opinion and public perceptions that wanted the Constitutional Court's ruling to be followed by all parties without exception including the DPR, the government and the KPU [General Elections Commission]", he told CNN Indonesia on Monday August 26.
Baskoro said one of the considerations for the DPR was because the issue of #KawalputusanMK (#SafeguardtheMKruling) was growing massively and was becoming a public concern nationally.
The issue, he said, was also able to mobilise all elements of civil society organically and simultaneously throughout Indonesia. Moreover, the movement had the potential to cause greater political turmoil if the government and the DPR continued to oppose it.
"Because if this continued to be ignored, then the impact could be to create political instability. Considering that the #KawalputusanMK issue had already gone very viral", he explained.
A similar opinion was also expressed by Indonesian Political Review Executive Director Ujang Komarudin. According to Komarudin, if the demonstrations continued around the country, it was not impossible that political turmoil similar to 1998, which saw the overthrow of former president Suharto, could be repeated for a second time.
"Because of the mass pressure, demonstrations that were so large, so many, so reverberating, it could have triggered a 98 incident if the RUU Pilkada was continued", he told CNN Indonesia.
"It was no joke. The DPR understood this, so they cancelled the RUU Pilkada while approving the PKPU which was drafted by referring to the Constitutional Court's ruling", he added.
Jokowi's declining influence
Furthermore, Komarudin is of the view that the shift of the DPR's position could not be separated from the factor of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo who has begun to be abandoned and is losing influence.
He then likened Widodo's position in the national political map as being like a 'lame duck'. Kamarudin believes that the pressure that is usually applied by Widodo was no longer able to be used effectively because he only has two months left in office.
"Jokowi has already begun to be abandoned, he has lost his lustre, self-esteem and influence. Jokowi is like a lame duck", he said.
Therefore, Komarudin said the only and most reasonable move that the DPR could take was by throwing the hot potato of public anger back into President Widodo's court.
"That was the political parties' choice rather than being descended upon by the masses or being vilified, it was better if it was directed at Jokowi. This is more about Jokowi's position that has begun to weaken and be abandoned", he explained.
According to Komarudin, the current situation is also far different from the presidential election earlier in the year, when Widodo's oldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka was able to be nominated as a vice-presidential candidate thanks to a Constitutional Court ruling.
At that time, Widodo's remaining term of office was still long enough so that his influence was very strong. In addition to this, the political parties also needed support from Jokowi to win the presidential election.
Meanwhile, he said, these factors are no longer felt by the political parties. Because, the only person that would gain through passing the Draft Regional Elections Law was Widodo because his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep could be nominated as a candidate in the Central Java gubernatorial election.
"There was no benefit for the political parties to force through Jokowi's will. Public trust in political parties and the government could have been destroyed and that's dangerous. It was better to abandon Jokowi and follow the Constitutional Court's ruling", he explained.
On the other hand, Agung Baskoro believes that the different position taken by the DPR compared with previous cases where it has passed unpopular legislation, was also related to the incoming leadership of president elect Prabowo Subianto and vice president Gibran Rakabuming who will be inaugurated in October.
According to Baskoro the DPR's decision also was taken because Prabowo, who is also the leader of the Indonesian Onward Coalition (KIM), was reluctant to bear the "sins" of the previous government when he is just about to start serving as president.
Moreover, he said, the issue of the political dynasties is now very rooted in society and could damage trust in the government in the future.
"Prabowo doesn't want to carry a big political burden when he starts to run the administration. Considering that the issue of the Jokowi lineage has become a recurring public issue", he concluded.
Widodo pours his heart out
Earlier, President Widodo also had a chance to pour his heart out over the current political dynamics. He insinuated that those who crowded around him in droves at the beginning of his presidency are now leaving in droves at the end.
Widodo did not explain who he meant. However, he related this when he was discussing his salute to the National Democrat Party (NasDem) which is now supporting Prabowo and Gibran Rakabuming despite having gone different ways in the 2024 presidential election.
"Usually they come in droves, in the end as I'm about to go, I'm being abandoned in droves. But I am sure that's not so with Pak [Mr] Surya Paloh, not with Bang [Brother] Surya, and not with NasDem", said Widodo at the opening of the NasDem's 3rd congress in Jakarta on Sunday August 25, referring to NasDem chairperson Surya Paloh.
Widodo also said that he is used to facing differences of opinion even with those who he has worked together with.
"I once shook hands, today I shake hands, agree, then a week later it's different. It doesn't matter, I think it's very good", Widodo said without explaining the moment in question. (tfq/isn)
[Translated by James Balowski. The original title of the article was "Balik Arah DPR di UU Pilkada, Dejavu 1998 hingga Sinyal Redup Jokowi".]
